Dr. Wilfried Buchta

April 7, 2021

Revived rumors about Mojtaba Khamenei’s activities inside the regime provide another lens through which to view the complex dynamics that will drive the eventual succession process.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; October 15, 1996 

In Tehran's parliament, the conservatives surrounding "revolutionary leader" Khamenei have the upper hand

Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, April 20, 2003 

If moderate Shi'ism prevails in Iraq, it could destroy the stability of the regime in Tehran.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung; 04/27/2003 

The dream of a theocracy in Iraq. Tehran controls some of the exile groups.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, April 16, 2004

Cicero, Issue No. 09, 2015 

Shiites against Sunnis, Iran against Saudi Arabia, Turkey against Kurds and the "Islamic State" against everyone - there is bitter war raging in the Middle East. What does the future hold for the entire region? Two scenarios.

Cicero, Issue No. 01, 2016 

The terror of the "Islamic State" feeds on an apocalyptic death theology. It is about time that Muslim scholars take a firm stand.

Cicero, Issue No. 12, December 2016 

The fight over the Iraqi city of Mosul is supposed to defeat ISIS once and for all. But that is an illusion. Because new conflicts are looming that could give the terrorist organization new life. Attacks in Europe are likely to follow.

Handelsblatt; January 7th, 2017 

The collective of states in the Near and Middle East threatens to implode. Their collapse continues to affect us. Now we are feeling the consequences of politics and the media having indulged in wishful thinking for decades. A guest post.

Hanns Seidel Foundation; 471/2017, Political Studies 

A major push to recapture Mosul, the last major stronghold of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq, has been underway since October 2016. Everything points to a long, complicated and costly battle. Although ISIS is likely to lose Mosul in the end, the unavoidable conflict of interest between the allied, but latently hostile ISIS opponents, threatens to lead to open escalation on "the day after". Hopes for a long-lasting stabilization of Iraq therefore appear to be deceiving.

NZZ; February 13, 2017

In the Middle East, history is made quickly, but not for the better: wherever dictators fall, states collapse, and if they don't, civil wars break out. The economy is suffering, the youth are desperate, and jihadism is flourishing.

DIE ZEIT No. 18/2017, April 27, 2017 

The course developments in the Arab world will take in the next few years can be predicted pretty accurately. One scenario

Cicero, Issue No. 04, April 2017 

As the Arab world sinks into chaos, the long ostracized Shiite state is becoming more and more powerful. Even the US under Trump will not be able to change that

Cicero, Edition 08, August 2017

Saudi Arabia's king has promoted his favorite son Mohammed bin Salman to First Crown Prince. This equals an attempt to overthrow the government and is bound to bring fundamental changes to the Sunni state.

Cicero, Issue No. 01, January 2018 

For a long time the Kurdish region stood out like a beacon of stability in Iraq and the entire region. But the pursuit of autonomy put an end to this illusion. Now bitter conflicts loom. The consequences would be fatal.

Cicero, Issue No. 01, July 2018 

The Bundeswehr deployment in Iraq has a price tag of 70 million euros. But the mission will likely soon prove to be a serious mistake. Because Berlin completely underestimated the local political development

Cicero, Issue No. 01, January 2020

In Iran, people took to the streets to protest an increase in gasoline prices. But the real reason for the unrest is more complex. It's all about the power of the regime.

NZZ; Jan 5, 2020 

The deadly American missile strike in Baghdad is fueling a surge of anti-American sentiments that could drive Iraq right into the arms of Iran. This would be a major setback for the US.

NZZ; March 29, 2020

Religious obscurantism, ideological stubbornness and political motives prevent the Iranian mullah regime from reacting appropriately to the corona epidemic. Now they pay the price for having lost the people's trust. The worst is yet to come.

EDITION Le Monde Diplomatique; N ° 27, 2020. IRAN, pages 16 -19 

The Revolutionary Guard, once upon a time founded solely for the protection of the Islamic Republic, is

now operating on an international scale, and has built an enormous business empire

EDITION Le Monde Diplomatique; N ° 27, 2020. IRAN, pp. 30-33 

Iran's political system

APuZ 21-22 / 2020; May 15, 2020; Pages 27 -33 

In the Iranian constitution, republican and theocratic institutions of the state are intertwined and form a complicated hybrid system. In the center of this system is the Office of the Supreme Leader. Its enormous power only becomes clear when taking a closer look at the remaining institutions.

APuZ 21-22 / 2020; May 15, 2020; Pages 34 -38 

Tehran's economy has been in an also self-inflicted crisis for a long time. The US sanctions that were reimposed in May 2018, and the corona pandemic that has raged in Iran since February 2020, have worsened the economic and social situation even further.